INDIVIDUALIZED RISK ASSESSMENT OF RADICALIZATION IN CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEMS – A LEGALFORENSIC APPROACH
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5937/ptp2602080TKeywords:
radicalization, risk assessment, criminal justice, violent extremism, forensic expertiseAbstract
The phenomenon of radicalization represents a growing challenge for contemporary criminal justice systems, particularly in light of the increasing overlap between criminality and violent extremism. This paper examines the need for an individualized approach to assessing the risk of radicalization within criminal justice systems and their legal frameworks. The main objective of the study is to analyze existing criminal justice mechanisms and assess whether they are adequate for identifying and evaluating the risks posed by individuals involved in extremist activities. The research is based on a qualitative analysis of relevant academic literature, international documents, and selected risk assessment tools used in the context of violent extremism. Particular attention is devoted to the role of the prison environment as a setting in which processes of radicalization may develop, but also be prevented, as well as to the limitations of existing standardized assessment instruments. The findings indicate that current legal approaches often fail to ensure sufficient integration of multidisciplinary knowledge, particularly in the field of risk assessment. The paper argues that the involvement of court-appointed experts in the assessment process could significantly improve the accuracy and reliability of judicial decision-making. The main contribution of this paper lies in identifying the key components of an integrated legal-forensic model of individualized risk assessment, combining legal, psychological, and security dimensions. Such an approach may enhance both preventive capacities and the protection of fundamental rights within criminal justice systems.
References
Ashworth, A., & Zedner, L. (2014). Preventive justice. Oxford University Press
Babanoski, K. (2020). The Threats of Returning Foreign Terrorist Fighters for the European Security. Journal of Applied Security Research, 15(1), pp. 10–27. https://doi.org/10.1080/19361610.2019.1695499
Basra, R., & Neumann, P. R. (2020). Prisons and Terrorism: Extremist Offender Management in 10 European Countries. London: ICSR. Pristupljeno 30. 3. 2026. https://icsr.info/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/ICSR-Report-Prisons-and-Terrorism-Extremist-Offender-Managementin-10-European-Countries_V2.pdf
Borum, R. (2011). Radicalization into Violent Extremism I: A Review of Social Science Theories. Journal of Strategic Security, 4(4), pp. 7–36. Pristupljeno 30. 3. 2026. http://www.jstor.org/stable/26463910
Christmann, K. (2012). Preventing Religious Radicalisation and Violent Extremis: A Systematic Review of the Research Evidence. Huddersfield: Youth Justice Board. Pristupljeno 30. 3. 2026. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a7dbcece5274a5eb14e6e34/preventing-violentextremism-systematic-review.pdf
Council of Europe. (2016). Guidelines for prison and probation services regarding radicalisation and violent extremism. Strasbourg: Council of Europe. Pristupljeno 30. 3. 2026. https://rm.coe.int/16806f9aa9
Doosje, B., Moghaddam, F. M., Kruglanski, A. W., de Wolf, A., Mann, L., & Feddes, A. R. (2016). Terrorism, radicalization and de-radicalization. Current Opinion in Psychology, 11, pp. 79–84. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.copsyc.2016.06.008
European Commission. (2020). A counter-terrorism agenda for the EU: Anticipate, prevent, protect, respond (COM(2020) 795 final). Brussels. Pristupljeno 30. 3. 2026. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=celex:52020DC0795
Garton Grimwood, G. (2016). Radicalisation in prisons in England and Wales. House of Commons Library. Pristupljeno 30. 3. 2026. https://www.cep-probation.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Briefing-paperradicalisation-in-England-and-Wales.pdf
Horgan, J. (2005). The social and psychological characteristics of terrorism and terrorists. In: Bjørgo, T. (ed.), Root Causes of Terrorism: Myths, Reality and Ways Forward (pp. 44–53). London; New York: Routledge. Pristupljeno 30. 3. 2026. https://opev.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/BJ%C3%98RGO-Tore.-Root-Causes-of-Terrorism-.pdf
Horgan, J. (2008). From profiles to pathways and roots to routes: Perspectives from psychology on radicalization into terrorism. The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 618(1), pp. 80–94. https://doi.org/10.1177/0002716208317539
Kupatadze, A., & Argomaniz, J. (2019). Understanding and conceptualizing European jihadists: Criminals, extremists or both? European Journal of Criminology, 16(3), pp. 261–277. https://doi.org/10.1177/1477370819829971
Makarenko, T. (2004). The crime-terror continuum: Tracing the interplay between transnational organised crime and terrorism. Global Crime, 6(1), pp. 129–145. https://doi.org/10.1080/1744057042000297025
Marsden, S. V. (2019).Deradicalisation Programmes: Introductory Guide. Centre for Research and Evidence on Security Threats. Pristupljeno 30. 3. 2026.https://crestresearch.ac.uk/resources/deradicalisation-programmesintroductory-guide/
Monahan, J. (2012). The individual risk assessment of terrorism. Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, 18(2), pp. 167–205. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0025792
Neumann, P. R. (2010). Prisons and Terrorism: Radicalisation and DeRadicalisation in 15 Countries. ICSR. Pristupljeno 30. 3. 2026. https://www.clingendael.org/publication/prisons-and-terrorism-radicalisationand-de-radicalisation-15-countries
Neumann, P. R. (2013). The trouble with radicalization. International Affairs, 89(4), pp. 873–893. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-2346.12049
Pressman, D. E., & Flockton, J. (2012). Calibrating Risk for Violent Political Extremists and Terrorists: The VERA 2 Structured Assessment. The British Journal of Forensic Practice, 14(4), pp. 237–251. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636641211283057
Radicalisation Awareness Network (RAN). (2022). The online dimension of extremism and improving online P/CVE efforts. Europ. Commission. Pristupljeno 30. 3. 2026. https://www.cepprobation.org/wpcontent/uploads/2018/10/ran_paper_online_dimension_extremism_improving_online_pcve_efforts_27092022_en.pdf
Ristov, I., Babanoski, K., Dimovska, E., & Ivanov, Z. (2026). The Nexus Between Illicit Economies and Terrorist Financing. In: Baysal, B., & Charles, M.H. (eds.), NATO Science for Peace and Security Series ‒E: Human and Societal Dynamics, vol. 163: Illicit Economies and Security Dynamics. pp. 94–107. https://doi.org/10.3233/NHSDP260009 Pristupljeno 30. 3. 2026. https://eprints.uklo.edu.mk/id/eprint/11429/2/NHSDP-163-NHSDP260009%20%281%29.pdf
Schuurman, B. (2020). Research on terrorism, 2007–2016: A review of data, methods, and authorship. Terrorism and Political Violence, 32(5), pp. 1011–1026. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2018.1439023
Silke, A. (2011). Disengagement or Deradicalization: A Look at Prison Programs for Jailed Terrorists. CTC Sentinel, 4(1), pp. 18–21
Silke, A., & Brown, K. (2016). ‘Radicalisation’: The transformation of modern understanding of terrorist origins, psychology and motivation. In: Jayakumar S. (ed.), State, society, and national security (pp. 129–150). Singapur: World Scientific Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1142/9789813140127_0009
Stanojoska, A., Babanoski, K., & Ilijevski, I. (2025). Exploring Individual Drivers of Violent Extremism in North Macedonia through Life Histories. Journal of Developmental and Life-Course Criminology, 11, pp. 50–74.https://doi.org/10.1007/s40865-025-00273-w
Tešović, O. (2026). Contemporary crime trends and the etiology of criminal behaviour in the context of global crises. In: Bodrožić, I. (ed.), XV International Scientific Conference Archibald Reiss Days: Investigating and Proving Contemporary Forms of Crime: Scientific Approaches (pp. 188–201). Belgrade: University of Criminal Investigation and Police Studies. Pristupljeno 30. 3. 2026. https://eskup.kpu.edu.rs/dar/article/view/649/368
United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). (2016). Handbook on the management of violent extremist prisoners and the prevention of radicalization to violence in prisons. United Nations. Pristupljeno 30. 3.2026. https://www.unodc.org/pdf/criminal_justice/Handbook_on_VEPs.pdf
van der Heide, L., van der Zwan, M., & van Leyenhorst, M. (2019). The practitioner’s guide to the galaxy: A comparison of risk assessment tools for violent extremism. Hag: International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT). Pristupljeno 30. 3. 2026. https://www.cepprobation.org/wpcontent/uploads/2018/10/29Aug19_Formatted_ThePractitionersGuidetotheGalaxy-2.pdf
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Olga Tešović, Kire Babanoski

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.






